It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side that have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
